Greenland: New Shipping Routes, Hidden Minerals – and a Geopolitical Flashpoint?
Greenland, strategically positioned between the United States and Russia, is emerging as a critical battleground as the Arctic opens up due to global warming. This transformation is underscored by Donald Trump's surprising consideration of the US potentially acquiring the island from Denmark, either through purchase or force, a move that has raised eyebrows among Nato allies.
The climate crisis is shrinking Greenland's ice sheet, along with the broader Arctic sea ice, opening up new shipping routes and revealing valuable resources. Trump's previously dismissed threats are now seen as an early indicator of Greenland's potential as a valuable geopolitical flashpoint. Maps illustrate how this is unfolding.
Arctic sea ice is melting at an alarming rate. The average extent of sea ice in the Arctic over the last five years was 4.6 million square kilometers, a 27% drop from the 1981-2010 average of 6.4 million square kilometers, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This loss is equivalent to the size of Libya. The shrinking ice means the Arctic ice cap no longer reaches Russian and Canadian coasts, exposing previously inaccessible seas.
Arctic shipping routes are becoming more viable. As polar seas become navigable for longer periods, routes once limited to icebreakers are now commercial corridors. The most developed is the Northern Sea Route, overlapping the North-East Passage and running along Russia's Arctic coast from Europe to Asia, central to Moscow's ambitions. Further west, the North-West Passage cuts through Canada's Arctic archipelago, while a central Arctic route across the North Pole is also emerging in long-term planning.
This is redrawing the global trade map, adding routes that could provide alternatives to the Suez Canal and cut the journey from Western Europe to East Asia by almost half. In 2025, the container ship Istanbul Bridge became the first liner vessel to travel from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route, also known as the 'Polar Silk Road' shortcut. The ship traveled from Ningbo, China, to Felixstowe, UK, in about 20 days.
Data from the Marine Exchange of Alaska showed a 175% rise in transits through the Bering Strait, which separates Russia from the US, from 242 in 2010 to 665 in 2024. However, these routes are not without risks, affecting their commercial viability. Moscow aims for year-round use of the North-East Passage, investing heavily in nuclear icebreakers, but ships still get stuck in the ice.
Rising tensions around the Arctic are evident. Several Arctic nations have claims in the region: Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the US. The UN's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf makes recommendations on these claims. The US has a military presence in the Arctic and Greenland, with the remote Pituffik base hosting missile warning, defense, and space operations. Russia has opened military bases and restored Soviet infrastructure.
China declared itself a 'near-Arctic state' in 2018 to gain more influence in the region. There's been increased military interest in the Arctic over the last 10-15 years, significantly altered since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finland and Sweden's Nato accession has reshaped the security landscape, increasing the focus on the Nordics as a collective, entrenching Russia's desire to assert control.
Greenland is also crucial in the global race for critical minerals. It ranks eighth in the world for rare earth reserves, estimated at 1.5 million tonnes by the US Geological Survey. It hosts two of the largest known deposits, at Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez, attracting growing foreign interest. China's Shenghe Resources is the largest shareholder in the Kvanefjeld project, holding a 12.5% stake.
No rare earth mining has taken place due to inaccessibility. Only about 20% of Greenland is ice-free, and much of the island is inaccessible for large parts of the year. However, global warming is altering this equation, and retreating ice is exposing new mineral resources.
