Bold headline: EUR/USD teeters at a critical support near 1.1850 as momentum cools but remains intact. And this is the part most traders miss: the path forward hinges on whether the pair can defend key moving averages that shape the near-term bias.
In early Monday trading, EUR/USD nudged lower during the Asian session, hovering around 1.1870 as of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, still comfortably above the midpoint, signaling that upward momentum is gradually returning. After prior overbought readings, the RSI has eased but remains above 50, which implies that pullbacks may stay mild while buyers reenter the market.
From a technical standpoint on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the slope of the EMA stays upward. The nine-day EMA is positioned above the rising 50-day EMA, reinforcing a bullish tilt. If price sustains above the nine-day EMA, the near-term trend remains constructive. The 50-day EMA acts as a broader support level during any pullbacks.
A daily close above the nine-day EMA at 1.1861 could open the door for an extension toward the 1.2082 region, the highest level touched since June 2021.
On the downside, a break below the short-term average would push EUR/USD toward the 50-day EMA near 1.1769 and could shift focus to deeper support levels, including the two-month low around 1.1578 registered on January 19.
Note: The technical assessment in this article was assisted by an AI tool to provide additional perspective.
